Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 9.354378e-05 0.000112 0.000131 0.000153 0.000177 0.000203 0.000232
2024-10-06 7.379669e-05 0.000098 0.000125 0.000157 0.000194 0.000235 0.000283
2024-10-13 6.019060e-05 0.000086 0.000117 0.000156 0.000201 0.000252 0.000314
2024-10-20 4.725069e-05 0.000074 0.000108 0.000151 0.000204 0.000265 0.000340
2024-10-27 4.045632e-05 0.000069 0.000105 0.000153 0.000212 0.000283 0.000370
2024-11-03 3.119816e-05 0.000058 0.000095 0.000146 0.000210 0.000288 0.000386
2024-11-10 2.697865e-05 0.000054 0.000093 0.000147 0.000218 0.000304 0.000415
2024-11-17 2.137199e-05 0.000048 0.000087 0.000143 0.000218 0.000312 0.000432
2024-11-24 1.842124e-05 0.000045 0.000085 0.000145 0.000225 0.000327 0.000459
2024-12-01 1.526306e-05 0.000041 0.000082 0.000144 0.000230 0.000338 0.000482
2024-12-08 1.181929e-05 0.000036 0.000076 0.000139 0.000228 0.000342 0.000494
2024-12-15 9.284984e-06 0.000032 0.000072 0.000137 0.000229 0.000350 0.000511
2024-12-22 6.810489e-06 0.000028 0.000068 0.000134 0.000232 0.000360 0.000535
2024-12-29 5.456259e-06 0.000026 0.000067 0.000137 0.000242 0.000381 0.000571
2025-01-05 4.047650e-06 0.000023 0.000064 0.000137 0.000247 0.000395 0.000599
2025-01-12 2.515648e-06 0.000019 0.000059 0.000132 0.000245 0.000400 0.000615
2025-01-19 1.877274e-06 0.000018 0.000058 0.000134 0.000253 0.000417 0.000648
2025-01-26 9.187450e-07 0.000014 0.000052 0.000127 0.000248 0.000417 0.000656
2025-02-02 6.207354e-07 0.000013 0.000051 0.000129 0.000256 0.000434 0.000689
2025-02-09 2.526992e-07 0.000011 0.000047 0.000125 0.000254 0.000439 0.000704
2025-02-16 1.322141e-07 0.000010 0.000047 0.000126 0.000261 0.000455 0.000735
2025-02-23 3.997403e-08 0.000009 0.000045 0.000125 0.000264 0.000466 0.000759
2025-03-02 1.161973e-09 0.000007 0.000041 0.000121 0.000262 0.000469 0.000772